Stronger Hurricanes and a Weaker FEMA Create a Perfect Storm

Twenty years ago, the people of Louisiana and Mississippi watched as their homes, schools, and neighborhoods were torn apart as Hurricane Katrina made landfall. For these families, it was not just a bad storm, but a loss of security, community, and life as they knew it. The devastation resulting from Katrina forced the nation to reckon with the failures of disaster response, which notoriously greatly compounded the damage. Out of that reckoning came the Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act (PKEMRA), a law designed to strengthen FEMA’s authority, improve disaster preparedness and response, and ensure the agency would not repeat the same failures when the next siren blared.

However, two decades later, a different type of alarm is sounding - from within FEMA’S own workforce. On Monday, August 25th, FEMA employees released the Katrina Declaration, a unified call for a more resilient future for both FEMA and the American people. In it, they call out unqualified leadership, political interference, and the dismantling of life-saving programs that weaken the agency and mirror the very failures that compounded Katrina’s devastation. These setbacks come just as climate change makes hurricanes - and wildfires, tornados, droughts, and extreme heat - deadlier than ever. At stake is nothing less than America’s ability to prevent another catastrophe on the scale of Katrina - a task made ever harder as climate change accelerates. 

Below, we detail how climate change intensifies hurricane threats, and how the Trump administration’s dismantling of safeguards sets the stage for devastation from future disasters.

High Winds

Hurricane categories are defined by sustained wind speed, a force that hints at a hurricane's destruction potential. Sustained hurricane winds have the capacity to cause devastation from tearing roofs from homes, toppling power lines, uprooting trees, and turning ordinary objects into dangerous projectiles. For example, Hurricane Andrew’s (1992) winds - a category 5 hurricane -  maxed out at 165 mph and obliterated over 25,000 Florida homes. Andrew resulted in over 160,000 Floridians homeless, and $27.3 billion in damages. More recently, Hurricane Michael (2018) became the first Category 5 storm to strike the U.S. mainland since Andrew. Its 160 mph winds reduced much of Mexico Beach, Florida to rubble and caused an additional $25 billion in losses.

High winds have already caused terrible damage to the United States, and scientists warn the danger will only increase with climate change. Warmer and warmer oceans act like fuel, supplying more heat and moisture to hurricanes, enabling them to intensify more quickly. Climate models project a higher proportion of category 4 and 5 storms in the decades ahead - and because these categories are defined by extreme wind speeds, this shift points to a future of stronger winds capable of shredding roofs, toppling power lines, and flattening entire communities.

Storm Surges

Hurricane wind speeds are not, however, the most deadly component of a hurricane - that title belongs to storm surges, which account for around nearly half of all hurricane-related fatalities. Storm surge occurs when persistent winds and low atmospheric pressure force seawater to accumulate above the normal tide level. While stronger winds generally produce higher surges, the surge’s ultimate magnitude also depends on the storm’s size, speed, angle of approach, and the shape of the coastline. When this elevated dome of water makes landfall, it can penetrate miles inland and cause severe flooding. The damage from Hurricane Katrina (2005), for example, was primarily due to storm surge flooding, which reached up to 30 feet along parts of the Mississippi coast. In New Orleans, the surge overwhelmed the city’s defenses, breaching multiple levees and allowing floodwaters from Lake Pontchartrain to pour into the city. Within days, roughly 80% of New Orleans was submerged. 

Stronger winds are a hallmark of intensifying hurricanes, which means, as hurricane intensities - and thus, wind speed - increase with climate change, so too does the potential for destruction from storm surges. Yet the ocean itself is also changing as a result of climate change. Rising seas mean that every surge starts from a higher baseline, allowing floodwaters to reach deeper inland and affect more communities. Even moderate storms now push water farther inland than in the past, and places once safe from flooding are increasingly at risk. Researchers warn that this rising baseline is transforming storm-surge flooding from a rare disaster into a recurring threat along U.S. coasts. 

Heavy Rainfall & Inland Flooding 

Hurricanes have the capacity to drop massive amounts of rain, causing rivers to overflow, dams/levees to break, and flash floods far inland. Hurricanes can deliver torrential rainfall - sometimes several feet over a few days - which can overwhelm rivers, drainage systems, and cause flooding that extends hundreds of miles. Hurricane Harvey (2017) is known for its flooding as a result of heavy rainfall. The top rainfall as a result of Harvey was recorded in Nederland, Texas - which saw a total of 60.58 inches of rain, and Hurricane Harvey is considered the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the U.S. The result? 30,000 people displaced from their homes, and over 190,000 homes damaged in total. 

Scientists have found that climate change amplified Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall, with post-1980 warming trends likely increasing the storm's rainfall by around 20%. This is because warmer atmospheres can hold roughly 7% more moisture for every 1°C of warming, which means hurricanes today can unleash far more water than they once did. For Harvey, that meant billions of dollars in additional damage, with neighborhoods that might once have escaped flooding instead left under several feet of water. Studies show this trend is not unique to Harvey: recent hurricanes like Florence (2018) and Ida (2021) also produced rainfall far above historical norms, underscoring how climate change is loading storms with unprecedented amounts of moisture. 

Coastal Erosion 

A lesser known facet of hurricanes is coastal erosion - the process by which rising seas, storm surge, and powerful waves steadily strip away sand, soil, and rock along the shoreline. This ongoing retreat of the coast undermines roads and buildings, causing the permanent loss of property, and heightens the risk of flooding for nearby communities. Over time, repeated erosion can permanently reshape coastlines, leaving communities more exposed for future storms. One example is Hurricane Ivan (2004) which caused extensive coastal erosion and overwash along Alabama and Florida barrier islands. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) documented currents strong enough to transport massive amounts of sand towards land, leaving dunes flattened, infrastructure undermined, and the shore eroded by up to 60 meters in some locations. 

As the planet warms from climate change, rising seas push the baseline water line closer to shore, while warmer and stronger storms exacerbate wave action and storm surge. Together, these forces magnify coastal erosion. Research has shown that even modest sea-level rise can result in beach retreat rates over 100 times greater than the rise itself, significantly accelerating shoreline loss. Modeling work further demonstrates how past hurricanes -  for example, Ivan - would have overtopped protective dunes far more often under the heightened sea levels, underscoring how future storms will reshape coasts even more severely, regardless of hurricane intensity.

How the Trump Administration Is Eroding Hurricane Preparedness 

As climate change intensifies hurricane destruction, forward-thinking preparedness is critical to ensure we do not face another disaster of Katrina’s magnitude. Yet under the Trump administration’s leadership, FEMA has charted the opposite course, undermining the very safeguards Congress enacted after the disastrous Hurricane Katrina. 

This includes terminating the program Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities (BRIC) - a pre-distaster mitigation initiative that was designed to invest in cost-effective projects to harden infrastructure, reduce future costs, and save lives. One project which did not see completion as a result of the termination of BRIC is Crisfield, Maryland’s Southern Flood Mitigation Project, aimed to protect against storm surge with tidal barriers and drainage upgrades. Similarly, Pacifica, California lost a crucial $50 million BRIC grant intended for a seawall to combat coastal erosion - a decision which will threaten shorelines, homes, and businesses in the area. 

Additionally, the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program (HMGP)  has historically provided the backbone of disaster resilience - funding everything from elevating flood-prone homes in New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy to wildfire mitigation in California. However, current HMGP funding -  which provides critical post-disaster funding to rebuild stronger and safer communities - is currently held up due to Secretary Noem’s requirement that contracts, grants, and mission assignments over $100,000 must be personally reviewed and approved by Noem. Of even greater concern is that, since February 2025, almost no funds have been authorized through HMGP for almost any Presidentially Declared Major Disasters. 

Compounding these funding blockages is the erosion of agency capacity through workforce reductions. In total, around one third of FEMA’s full-time staff have departed this year - driven by incentives encouraging voluntary resignations, prolonged hiring freezes, and canceled support contracts. If that were not enough, employees who added their names to the Katrina Declaration were immediately placed on administrative leave - a targeted, illegal retaliation against whistleblowers. FEMA is not alone - Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) employees who signed their own Declaration of Dissent have also been put on administrative leave, with some signatories recently fired. This represents another blatant attempt to silence experts - experts whose work is essential for protecting Americans from climate threats like stronger hurricanes and rising seas. 

A Hopeful Future

The risks we face shall not be disregarded. We think, nonetheless, it is warranted for hope to persist - because pressure works. For example, after scientists pushed back, NOAA was forced to resume a critical project - previously halted by the Trump administration - forecasting how climate change will alter extreme rainfall.

Our voices matter, and they have an impact. Right now, the brave FEMA employees who spoke out need your help. The FEMA employees have sounded the alarm for the risks of not fighting back, and we cannot afford to hit snooze on this alarm.